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Jeff Jacobs - page 18

Jeff Jacobs has 240 articles published.

Home Ownership Is Dead! Take The Test.

I find it more and more difficult to talk about home ownership with people.  I understand most of their points and counter points, however, discussing it with them often leads to both parties agreeing to dis-agree on the topic.  I certainly don’t believe home ownership is completely dead but the likely hood of you or anyone you know making a positive return is certainly slim to none.  I of course have heard of some people making good money buying low and selling high, however, the stories are maybe one in a thousand if that.  I honestly don’t think people truly understand the financial numbers thus they truly believe (and arguing) they are making money or are going to be making money “in the long run”.

Growing up we hear a lot of the marketing propaganda.  I’m sure you’ve heard of the “American Dream” and the white picket fence of home ownership.  Maybe waiting to fall in love (or are in love) with that “perfect” person who turns out not so “perfect” down the road.  Are you creating the “perfect” wedding?  These are examples of over delivered hype in my opinion.  Sure we want them to be true.  The reality is home ownership is a lot of work that you probably can’t afford.  Relationships take work and it turns out that nobody is perfect.  The “perfect” wedding deep down wasn’t like you imagined it as a little girl and most fail.

Not to get to much off topic but looking back at grade school & middle school – and how we had to stand up each and everyday in the morning to recite the pledge of allegiance to the flag.  You’re trained from an early age to love this country.  No matter how much the government, banks, and companies screw you over on a daily basis – you’ll continue to love and build this “American Dream” in the country you were trained to love.  Being a home owner you support this city.  You provide a large chunk of the taxes (property taxes).  These yearly taxes help fund the schools, emergency, and other services.  Home owners are important and we must have them. We must have home owners who believe in this home ownership American dream to even function as a city financially.

I created this little test to see where you stand with your home.  Before I get to that, however, there are a few exceptions we need to discuss.  First, there was a time when home ownership was good.  If you have an older parent or maybe an older Grandma/Grandpa, they may have purchased a home for example 7K and now it’s worth 300K.  There is a good chance they have refinanced a few times and spent that money anyway.  The comparison between then and now isn’t even a comparison.  From the way banks operate today to the land available compared to now – we are in difference times and those deals are long gone.  The gap of profitability (buying and selling points) has been eaten up by the banks, taxes, interest etc.  today so just letting you know about that before starting the test.

Time for the home ownership test to see how you are doing. Are you throwing money into the fire or are you doing ok?

1)  Take your buying price and subtract any down payment.  Banks usually require 20% or may have paid more or less but figure out that down payment number.

Example: Home purchased for 240K my down payment was 20% so $48,000 is the magic number invested.

2)  Initially you may have had some closing costs, appraisals, purchased extra points.  Some banks bundle this together into the loan, however, you probably paid for some of them upfront.

Example:  $300 appraisal fee and $2000 points buy down so I’m at $50,300.

3) Add up your interest to date.

Example:  Three years (36 months) is approx. $39,000 in just interest so I add that to my previous figure amount which means I’m at $89,300.

4) Add up your property taxes.

Example:  $3000 per year for 3 years of home ownership is $9,000. dded to the above figure is now:  $98,300.

5)  Add in your Insurance.  If you’re lucky you don’t have PMI insurance being added to your payment each month.

Example:  $600 per year for 3 years costs me $1,800.  Added to previous figure is approx $100,100. for 3 years of ownership.

6) Optional:  Add in your renovations/upgrades to date.

Example:  $6000 added for new carpets and smaller kitchen updates to date.  Added into my above figure I am at:  $106,100.

7) Optional:  Homes are bigger than rentals usually so if you want to add in the extra cost like gas, water, sewer, electric, garbage – you can add those on now.

8) Optional:  HOA (Association fees) add those in if you have them.

9) Final question is to take what you owe to date (your current principal) and add the figure you calculated above.

Example:  My principal is $195,000 currently and adding the figure above my final number is:  $195,000 + $106,100 = $301,100.

So now you know what you need to break even on your home.  Well… not quite…. when you sell your home you’re going to pay about 6% in fees to the agents involved and also escrow & titles & other misc. fees.  So for the sake of keeping this simple lets just forget those fees.  Forget i mentioned that.

You should have our magic number now.  So for the example home above purchased for $240K it will need to be sold for at least $300K just to break even with no profit. Here is the fun part…. jump over to http://www.zillow.com and see what your home is approx. worth.    If you’re still with me at this point you’re probably heart broken or really happy.  Some will argue that Zillow is not the “end all be all” source of accuracy.  There is some truth to that i guess but in today’s society it is the number one source for buyers and agents.

If you’re happy with those numbers then you’re doing great and you won the test.  For everyone else, think about this.  What could you buy with your break even figure money – think like a new home buyer for a second.  Every year homes continue to get bigger and bigger and are costing less.  Communities of homes are being built around your home. These homes have brand new everything inside with big kitchens and master bathrooms.  What makes a family looking for a new home want your old overpriced home for?  They don’t want to live in your filth.  They don’t want to have to put a new roof on your home.  My point is chances are your break even number doesn’t even compare to what I can get brand new – and cheaper.

Here are the popular arguments why home ownership is so great.

Retirement:  First problem is that you’re assuming you’re going to live to retirement age.  Think about your close family members and how many have died before retirement whether its cancer, heart attacks, or whatever A LOT of people die early or just a few years after retirement.  Second, you’re paying 3 times the value of your home over 30 years and that makes it a horrible retirement investment.  You’re paying $500K for a $200K home.  If you’re bad at saving more and not dedicated to put money away for retirement then maybe that is an argument.  A better method would be to rent and put aside the extra $750 per month for retirement.  You’ll have way more in the long term.  OR you can give me $1400 per month for 30 years ($504K) and when you turn 65 I will give you $200K back (if you have good credit and equity).  Now that sounds like a good investment.

You can write off the Interest:  Yes, you do get to write off the overpriced interest you’re paying over the 30 years.  Interest is a loss, however, just like taxes.   Your theory is you’re saving money by “writing it off” and that is just silly. It’s not money you get back…ever.  It doesn’t go to your principal amount so it’s a total loss and goes into the banks pocket.  Just like taxes the theory of writing if off isn’t always a good thing.  If I got $100 dollars in my pocket and I have to give uncle sam $30 percent that means I still got $70 bucks in my pocket.  Your theory is to give it all to uncle sam and now you have nothing.

Renting is a total loss:  I heard this one a few times before.  Lets say for example a mortgage payment is $1400.  If I was to rent an apartment for $800 i would pocket $600 per month.  At the end of the year I would have $6,000 extra.  At the end of 5 years i would have $30,000 saved.  If you make your mortgage payment of $1400 per month (assuming you’ll be able to afford that) you’ll lose at least $1200 of that to interest the first 5 years.  That means you “kinda saved” $10,000.  (edit: actually assuming basic property taxes of 3K per year – you would be in the hole 5K… sorry) However, i can spend my money now and you’ll have to get approved and hope you can get your “kinda saved” money later.

Who makes money with real estate?

Investors or individuals who can pay cash for the house.  Investigate a property before hand and buy it at a courthouse auction. Most can’t and most never pay their mortgage off.  If you’re a house flipper, have cash to buy house, and can do the construction needed to flip it successfully there certainly is a lot of money to be made.

So… there you have it folks – lets hear how good or bad you’re doing and also your test results.

A Buying Strategy

Real Estate agents go out into the field each day to look for properties to list, or sell. Some have a habit of spending a ton of time on the computer pouring over sales data, that never seems to do much for the market place. We always need inventory, so most agents should be looking for listings.

You as a buyer can rely on the agents ability to find properties for you to make offers on, or you could start looking on your own.

A commercial Real Estate agent picked a neighborhood, drove it, and selected five properties that suited his criteria. He gave the list to a local agent, and told him to keep him updated on the status. These properties weren’t on the market, so the agent contacted each of the five to see if they had an interest in selling. One property did contact another agent who listed the property then contacted the agent who had approached the seller.

These are things that actually happen in a Real Estate market between more sophisticated buyers, and sellers. There is no reason for any buyer to be intimidated in today’s market place in just making an offer. That is what Real Estate is all about; two people who come to a mutual agreement on the terms to buy, or sell a property.

Working with a Real Estate Agent

Most of the long term Real Estate agents are in a position to retire. There is a saying that we aren’t in the business to sell Real Estate, we are in the business to buy it. Most of the long time agents bought properties in the 1980s, 1990s, and now have a portfolio that is worth more than they ever imagined. One of the best agents I know retired to Hawaii in 2008, but found some great deals there, and bought, four years later those properties are worth another small fortune, go figure.

We are in a crazy, volatile market. It’s hard to know who to trust, and in my posts here, I’ve talked about some of the good agents that I known.

The reason for this post is that Real Estate agents are different from Real Estate sales. Agents want you to be happy, and make good decisions. They have the luxury to work with you rather than make a sale to make a car payment.

What I always suggest is that you take the time to shop for a Real Estate agent. The number one tip I can give you is to get away from the computer, and go out into the neighborhoods that interest you. Look at the for sale signs, go to Sunday open houses, and network. Real Estate is a relationship business and you should cultivate relationships.

Get to know the players before you enter the game.

Seattle’s Feeding Frenzy Fizzle

Every year we have a Spring Season bounce in home prices, for people buying houses to settle in before the school years starts next year. People buy close to the schools they want their kids to go to. This year in Seattle you do need to live close to the schools you desire.

That led to what some in the Real Estate industry called a feeding frenzy. Multiple offers were the rule for about six weeks this year. Inventory was very low in Seattle, and across King County for that matter. The Northwest Multiple Listing service showed about 4000 homes for sale compared to about 7000 homes for sale last year.

What struck me is that in December, and the early part of January, people were complaining about the quality of the properties listed for sale. In March, and April all those houses were sold. In some cases people were in bidding wars for stale inventory.

Now that we are at the end of April you can see more houses coming on the market with fewer buyers rushing in to snap them up. As we go through the summer it looks like to me we will hear how there is nothing decent for sale, and in August we will see price reductions, once again.

Better Finish Up Those Taxes….Seattle.

If you haven’t done your taxes by now, you’re late. Not only do you lose about 28% per paycheck received working for the man – you also lose 10% in sales taxes for the stuff you buy. It’s the cycle of life I guess. If that wasn’t enough the man sticks it the retailers you just paid a 35% rate of that revenue! I won’t bother you with the property taxes, lotto taxes, death taxes, tolls, license fees, or gas taxes… it’s endless. So the question is how much are your really paying and are you getting what you’re paying for. Would you feel differently if you actually had to write a check out inside of it being integrated into your life seamlessly? This system isn’t new by any means. It has been in place for many Presidents but surely our tax system is one of the most complicated and messed up systems.

This statement was released by Ron Paul today:

Knowing that every penny the average American has earned from January 1st until today has gone to pay federal, state, or local taxes is a frightening reminder of how much liberty modern Americans have lost. Unfortunately, even after Tax Freedom Day, Americans will still suffer from the Federal Reserve’s regressive and hidden inflation tax, which erodes their purchasing power for the benefit of big banks and big-spending politicians.

As a Congressman, I have never voted to raise taxes or increase spending, which is why I have consistently been named one of the top ‘Taxpayers’ Best Friends’ in Congress by the non-partisan National Taxpayers Union. As President, I will work to reduce the burden of taxes and spending on the American people by passing my ‘Plan to Restore America.’

This Plan not only cuts $1 trillion in the first year of my administration and balances the budget by the third year, but it provides much-needed tax relief to the American people. It does this by permanently extending the Bush-era tax rates, lowering the corporate tax rate to 15 percent, allowing American companies to repatriate capital without paying additional taxes, abolishing the death tax, and ending all taxes on personal savings.

My ‘Plan to Restore America’ also begins to free the American people from the inflation tax by conducting a full audit of the Federal Reserve and legalizing competing currencies. These simple steps will allow the American people to at last learn the truth about how the Fed is working to prop up big banks at the expense of average Americans’ standard of living and then to take the appropriate actions to protect themselves and their families.

My ultimate goal remains to repeal the 16th Amendment and end the tyranny of the IRS once and for all. Of the four men seeking the presidential nomination of one of the major parties – President Obama, Governor Romney, Speaker Gingrich, and myself – I am the only one who has consistently opposed increases in taxes and spending. I am also the only one who has consistently fought the Federal Reserve’s assault on the middle class’ standard of living. My campaign to Restore America Now is the clear choice for any American concerned about rolling back taxes, cutting spending, and curbing inflation.

….. Yet people will continue to vote for Mitt Romney or Obama.  Can’t really fault them as the media continues to push these two “front runners” like nobody else is running.

The Cost of a Real Estate Transaction

Brokerages have costs, for offices, and providing online presence. It’s a high over head cost that some other Brokerages cut to offer services for a discount, or the new thing is to rebate money at closing. All Brokerages try to present the idea that a Real Estate transaction is complicated, which it is, but once the Principals are in place the transaction itself is kind of automatic.

Agents can hire a transaction coordinator, or many Brokerages offer a transaction coordinator for a fee. The cost is low, because the coordinator gets paid on volume. You can look up mortgage Brokerages that operate on the same principle. A second part of the equation is a virtual assistant who does the little things to keep the transaction moving along.

Total cost for services that are contracted out is about $1000, maybe $2000. If you include the escrow, Purchase, and Sale Agreement a Real Estate transaction could cost as much as $4000 for both sides, total.

So this idea of paying a 6% commission is pretty high. That’s $12000 for a $200K transaction.

On this blog we have talked about why people pay the commissions, and justified the idea of paying a full Brokerage commission. What I have never done is present the realities that the Real Estate industry is loaded with scammers. Online Brokerages are my biggest target for presenting the fact people pay way too much for very little that an Online Brokerages gives them. If you aren’t paying for Real Estate experience, know how, or insider information then why pay the high fees?

Apartment Construction

Most cities are having more apartment construction projects. There is a demand for housing, and buyers are a little concerned about entering into a 30 year mortgage commitment. There are many buyers squabbling over a low inventory of properties for sale, but sales of low end rental type properties are brisk.

I have always advocated home ownership until now. It just so happens that this housing market crash came at a time when I was in my 50s and have very little need of a house to call my own. I can rent, save, and travel. Some young couples may still have a future of kids, dogs, schools, and family, but many are increasingly interested in saving money in more secure investments.

The family home has traditionally always been a secure part of a portfolio. Recently that idea has been questionable. My personal opinion is that the cost of housing will continue to decline. There are many ways to build a community with density, just like most city planners have promised. In keeping with that, as long as you would consider a town home of condo, the idea of an apartment isn’t too far off, especially if your town home, or condo is going down in price.

Real Estate Term: Procuring Cause

Procuring Cause is a Real Estate term. Rebate Brokers have thrown the term around a lot because they write up offers, then give a rebate of the commission. In some cases, other agents have shown the buyer houses, some times several houses, helped line up a mortgage, and worked with the buyer until the buyer finds a house they want to make an offer on. The buyer, in some cases, has gone to the rebate broker after spending hours working with a full commission agent. When the buyer, under these circumstances, writes the offer with the rebate broker, the other agent can, in some cases, claim the commission.

There are things an agent can do to protect themselves, like having a Buyer’s Agency Agreement, but many buyers want to keep their options open, so they are reluctant to sign a Buyer’s Agency Agreement. There are pros, and cons to having an Agreement, but that is an article for another time. The fact is many agents are wiser now than when rebate Brokerage was a new idea.

Rebate Brokers have also cautioned buyers about Procuring Cause, that’s how the subject came up.

It’s a complicated process to claim a commission. It’s done by arbitration, and usually is done between the Brokers. The buyer can do what ever they want. The buyer isn’t obligated, legally, to write up an offer with the agent who showed them a property. Just because some one is there doesn’t mean they are contributing to the buying process. The other thing that is very true is that most buyers use online searches, and so the Brokerages that provide those services should probably claim procuring cause.

This article is just a caution to make buyers aware that there is this issue, but it is a minor part of the home buying process.

Cathy Cowan of Windermere

From time to time I forget to mention some of the best Real Estate agents in Seattle. Today I ran into Cathy Cowan who I haven’t seen in about two years. She’s been busy helping clients who are referred to her.

She admits she is low key, but diligent, as well as honest. People refer to her, other agents refer clients to her. She has a wealth of experience for multi million dollar homes to helping to sell a town home for a professional couple who has been transferred to another state.

Offering that range gives agents an advantage. I first met Cathy when she partnered with another agent to sell a view property that had some quirks. She took the lead in all of the preparation, and marketing, because she had a feel for the clientele who would be making an offer. The property got offers that Cathy fielded beautifully.

It’s grace under pressure that can get some properties the best price, or get a buyer a better price than a less skilled agent can.

– David Losh

Rethinking Home Remodels

We have a low tech remodel company. Nothing is fancy, everything is functional. It hasn’t done too much in the past three years, but we still prepare properties for sale. In the past we did kitchens, bathrooms, and basements. I have a $10K rule that if you are spending more than that you’re wasting money. You’d be surprised what you can get done.

Yesterday I was in a home that is the middle of a $120K remodel. It’s beautiful. They did everything. What I have been wondering is if there will ever be a return on this obvious investment.

This isn’t the first time in the past two years that I’ve wondered about remodels that made sense five years ago. In the past there was a set of rules about if you invested in a bathroom you could expect a return. Now I look at adding a bath room may get a return, but pretty much maintaining what you’ve got makes more sense. Maybe a new tub surround, or vanity, but gutting a place doesn’t seem to pencil.

The same with the kitchen. No one is going to pay for some one else’s vision of a gourmet kitchen. You can do it for yourself, and that is getting to be more popular, but you have to figure it’s a loss.

Even flippers are starting to cut corners on what they spend, except on system upgrades. Plumbing, and electrical are pretty safe bets for resale. It’s not so much profitable, but buyers are getting pretty savvy about big ticket expenses.

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